Sept-2023

References \ 2023 \ Sept-2023

Regional Budgets in H1 2023

Alexander N. Deryugin – Acting Head of Department for Budget Policy of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Over time, the impact of partial postponement of tax payments to the next month due to the transition of taxpayers to a single tax account from January 1, 2023, began to weaken and the dynamics of the main tax revenues of regional and local budgets returned to the usual levels, slightly exceeding the inflation rate. As before, the volume of public debt of the regions, as well as their debt burden, continue to remain at a safe level.

Key words: regions’ budgets, revenues of regional budgets, expenditures of regional budgets, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, regional debt.

JEL-codes: H61, H62, H63, H71, H72, H74, H77.

Economic Situation in the Industry in H1 2023

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexandra Ye. Batyaeva – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article presents a set of different non-traditional economic indicators obtained in the surveys, which were conducted by the «Russian Economic Barometer» among Russian industrial enterprises in the first half of 2023. A wide range of considered indicators provides a great posibility to make a more comprehensive assessment of the state of affairs in Russian industry.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, production and investments restrictive factors, suppliers, wholesale buyers, recruitments and redundancies, risk of bankruptcy, competitiveness, sources of investments, relations with banks, production and inflation, demand prognoses.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, G38, J23, P23.

Additional Professional Education and Digitalization

Elena A. Semionova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Galina S. Tokareva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The market for additional professional education in Russia was actively developing before the pandemic, primarily due to the development of online schools and the corporate sector of education. In the context of forced restrictions in 2020–2021, many companies began to reduce their spending on training their employees. Nevertheless, the development of distance learning technologies made it possible to avoid a significant decline in activity in the APE market. According to the forecasts of a number of researchers, in 2022–2025 we can expect a recovery and growth in the activity of the APE system. A significant role in this process is played by the digitalization of education, the development of projects in the field of EdTech educational technologies. The article presents the results of a study of the level of development of digital technologies in the sector of additional professional education in the regions of Russia.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: additional professional education, digitalization, reskilling, upskilling.

JEL-codes: I21, I23, I25.

Survey of Current Business (June-September 2023)

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In June 2023, the level of the capacity utilization rate reached 92% – the highest value in the entire history of REB’s monitoring since December 1991. The previous record – 90% – was reached last month. Labor utilization rate also gained maximum value – 99%. The share of enterprises in good and normal financial condition in June equaled to 91%. It was higher only once – in December 2018 (94%). In general, many surveyed by REB indicators in June looked quite optimistic. Only price indicators cause concern, because they demonstrated a tangible increase in both the actual indices and the indices of expected changes.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Territorial Planning and Forecasting of Economic Indicators by Machine Learning Methods

Yury A. Pleskachyev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Yury Yu. Ponomarev – Head of Laboratory for Infrastructure and Spatial Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Matvey A. Saprykin – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Forehanded consideration of economic development forecasts for both macroeconomic and microeconomic situation in the region and the metropolis is an important element in territorial planning and urban development in modern conditions. The article proposes an approach to forecasting economic indicators, which would allow simultaneously taking into account the dynamics of macroeconomic factors and the effects of individual program and strategic documents implementation (using the measures of national projects as an example). Using several options of modern model architectures, we show the most effective model in terms of forecast accuracy based on their approbation on two important indicators for the sphere of territorial planning – investments in fixed assets and real disposable incomes of the population.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state task of the RANEPA.

Key words: forecasting, planning, machine learning.

JEL-codes: C40, C45, R53, E22, D31.

Supply and Demand in the System of State Regulation of Jewelry Turnover

Ludmila N. Ivanova – Head of the Center for Research in the Field of State Regulation of the Precious Metals and Precious Stones industry of NIFI, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga V. Umgaeva – Leading Researcher at the Center for Research in the Field of State Regulation of the Precious Metals and Precious Stones Industry of NIFI, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Jewelry made of precious stones and metals, by their economic characteristics, belong to luxury goods, goods with excessive consumer properties. The jewelry market, in this regard, is highly competitive and requires state support of a domestic manufacturer. In turn, the state, in view of the use of raw materials subject to special accounting for the manufacture of jewelry, legislatively regulates the turnover of jewelry. Despite the unity of opinions on the need for state regulation, the business operating in the field of production and sale of jewelry products and the state structures controlling it differ in assessing the degree of control and participation of the state in this process.

The application of the laws of economic theory, in particular the laws of supply and demand, in relation to the jewelry market, allowed us to justify the adopted and current legislative decisions and suggest directions for their further improvement.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state task of the Financial Research Institute under Ministry of Finance of Russia.

Key words: state regulation, demand, supply, jewelry, simplified taxation system, jewelry artists, business interests, state objectives.

JEL-codes: B12, D11, D51, G18, L38, L51, M21.

Unqualified Investors in the Russian Stock Market

Anna A. Shamkhalova – Vice-President of the Russian Club of Economists (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In June 2023, the number of unqualified investors on the Russian stock market reached 31 million. On the one hand, such growth demonstrates a high level of development of the system of access to trading on the stock market due to the introduction of digital technologies, and, on the other hand, it contains significant risks of various anomalies in the market due to insufficient financial literacy and lack of experience in conducting stock transactions for most new investors. In this connection, the article examines the portrait of a modern unqualified investor and analyzes the trends in the development of investment activity by this category of investors. The author concludes that in the policy of financial market regulation it is necessary to change the main vector of influence from the creation of an «ideal» financial environment to the formation of a financially literate investor.

Key words: unqualified investors, stock market, financial platforms, financial literacy.

JEL-codes: G11, G23, G40, G53.

Multilateral Programs to Promote the Development of International Financial Institutions in the EAEU Member States (2002–2021)

Yury K. Zaitsev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anna N. Loshchenkova – Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article analyzes the work of international financial institutions (IFIs) in the EAEU member states in 2002–2021. Kyrgyzstan and Armenia were the largest recipients of IFIs multilateral assistance. The largest amounts of assistance were directed to the provision of budget support, development of economic infrastructure, strengthening of public administration and civil society systems. In such sectors as water and energy, IFIs work within the framework of multilateral trust funds, which often include sovereign donor countries.

The article was prepared as part of the research work of the RANEPA’s state task.

Key words: official development assistance, international development assistance, EAEU countries, international financial institutions, Eurasian integration.

JEL-codes: F02, F21, F35.

Survey of Payment Systems in H1 2023

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2023, the Russian market of payment systems keeps evolving at a rapid pace. Improvements in technology and updates of the regulatory framework result in major market changes. The confrontation between traditional banks and new fintech actors, as well as increasing competition between payment systems, are generating new technologies and services that are changing the way users interact with financial instruments. Users abandon traditional banking services more often in favor of mobile applications and other modern transfers, taking advantage of new opportunities and comfort provided by startups and large companies. In these conditions, the regulator has to take into account the evolution of the market and propose new rules and standards for safe and stable operation of payment systems.

Key words: Russian banking sector, payment systems, operators of payment systems, cryptocurrency, digital ruble, contactless payment.

JEL-codes: E42, E58, G21.