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Senior Employment: Potential for Growth

Victor Lyashok – Research fellow of Department of Labor Markets and Pension System Research, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The retirement age raise is bound to create certain risks for the labor market. Nevertheless, statistics point to the existence of an informal agreement between employees and employers that the retirement age should mark the end of an employment history. If such is the case, a raised retirement age will simply push that threshold a little further.

Key word: retirement age increase, aged population employment, occupational and sectoral employment features.

EAEU Trade and Economic Relations with the People’s Republic of China

Nadezhda Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Macroeconomic Simulation Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Chinese response to the protectionist policy conduction by the United States provide a chance for the Eurasian Economic Union to extend its presence on the Chinese market. In order to take advantage of it, the EAEU member states should introduce right decisions in their trade policy aimed at balancing foreign trade development with China. The article studies current trade and economic relations between the EAEU and the PRC as well as prospects for interlinking the Eurasian integration with the Chinese initiative of «Silk Road Economic Belt».

Key words: Eurasian economic union, People’s Republic of China, trade turnover between EAEU and the PRC, «Silk Road Economic Belt».

Social Support: Strengthening the Population Targeting

Elena Е. Grishina – Head of Department of Labor Markets and Pension System Research, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena Tsatsura – Senior Research fellow of the Living and Social Protection Research Department, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Sociological Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation may goal is poverty reduction in half-will require not only the growth of real wages and the real incomes of the population, but also a change of the social support system to enhance its targeting. This transformation in the Russian regions have already started-more social support measures takes into account the income of the recipient or of the household.

Key words: social safety net, targeted social assistance, population’s income, poverty, disadvantaged.

Signs of Crisis in Emerging Markets: Markets in a Lull

Lyudmila Gadiy – Junior Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anna Kiyutsevskaya – Research fellow of the Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria Sherbustanova – Junior Research fellow of the Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

US Fed’s monetary policy tightening has induced capital outflows from emerging economies, inducing, coupled with internal problems, serious financial instability in the markets of Turkey and Argentina. Central banks have launched policies to arrest the plunge in the markets of developing countries. The achieved market stability may be short-lived, however.

Key words: United States FED, emerging markets, central banks of developing countries, financial instability, capital flight.

Assessment of Household Inflation Expectations Based on the RANEPA Survey

Yury Perevyshin – Senior Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The paper presents the methodology for conducting a survey of households on the expected and perceived inflation conducted by the RANEPA. We discuss the results of the first wave of our survey and compare these with the surveys of the Public Opinion Foundation and Rosstat is given. We identify features of perceived and expected changes in prices by Russian households, and formulate issues that require further discussion.

Key words: inflation expectations, public opinion polls, inflation, monetary policy.

Investment and Construction Activity in H1 2018

Olga Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Macroeconomic Research Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In H1 2018, fixed investments constituted 103.2% against the corresponding period of the previous year. Positive dynamics of the scale in investment and construction activity has been observed during last seven quarters and reflects gradual managing the fallout from the acute crisis posted in the investment sphere in 2014–2016. The share of own funds along the reduction of budget funds and bank loans issued for the investment programs has increased in investment financing.

In H1 2018, dynamics of fixed investments by large enterprises was positive in the manufacturing industry, construction, and commerce along a decrease of fixed investments in the mining sector and transport.

Key words: investment, fixed investment, work scope in construction, housing.

Tax Policy Approaches to Reducing Informal Economy in the Area of a Small Business and Self-Employment

Andrey Korytin – Research fellow of the Laboratory for Studies of Tax Policy, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article considers feasible tax policy approaches towards informal economy problem in the area of a small business and self-employment as well as the international practice of the special tax regimes use in order to suggest tax policy measures that enhance incentives for the activity of micro-business and self-employed in the formal economy.

Kеу words: Informal economy, small business taxation, special tax regimes, micro-business, self-employment.

Russia’s Balance of Payments in Q3 2018

Alexandra Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Center for the Study of Central Banks, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q3 2018, Russia’s trade surplus reached record values due to export growth due to the increase in oil prices and as a result of the decline in imports caused by the weakening of the ruble. Balance of payments data say about the reduction of investments in the Russian economy. The ruble remains fundamentally undervalued, but may continue to decrease with increased risk of new anti-Russian sanctions.

Key words: balance of payments, current account, trade surplus, capital outflow, capital inflow and exchange rate, Bank of Russia.

Deposits in January-August 2018

Michael Khromov – Head of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Center of Structural Research, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In the first eight months of 2018 retail bank deposits turned out to be the primary source of expanding the resource base of the Russian banking sector. Retail deposits, however, posted almost the slowest dynamics over a long-term period of monitoring. This is what restricts opportunities of the banking sector to steadily increase lending to the economy.

Key words: Russia’s banking sector, bank assets, banking passives, retail deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank organizations.

Three-Year Budget: Maneuver in Favor of Productive Expenditure

Sergey Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana Tischenko – Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anna Komarnitskaya – Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Research fellow of the Budget Policy Department, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The draft law on the federal budget for the year 2019 and 2020 and 2021 period covered years «implies a fiscal maneuver in favor of productive expenditure. Federal budget should become the main source of growth of the Russian economy over the next three years. There are problems of security, limiting the financing of new spending commitments without attraction of means on the debt market.

Key words: federal budget, draft law on the federal budget, budget revenues, budget expenditures, budget balance, budget rule, productive expenditures.

Survey of Current Business (July-October 2018)

Sergey Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey Yegorov – Research fellow of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa Bachirova – Senior Research fellow of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav Belyakov – Research fellow of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In July 2018, quite a significant part of REB’s indicators showed a noteworthy deterioration in values, especially against the background of exceptionally favorable indicators of the previous month. Thus, the diffusion index of output «lost» 16 percentage points, and of wages – 11. Equally alarming negative dynamics was demonstrated by some three-month expectations of diffusion indices: for example, the index of order-book level declined by 16 percentage points, and of employment even by 20. Capacity utilization rate significantly decreased; the share of financially sound enterprises became smaller by 17 percentage points, and the share of enterprises that did not purchase equipment for 2 or more months in a row, on the contrary, increased by 16 points.

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, risk of bankruptcy, economic policy, crisis duration.

Challenges and Risks of the Forecast for 2019–2024

Alexey Vedev – Head of the Center of Structural Research, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Leading Research fellow of Department for Financial Studies of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Sergey Drobyshevsky – Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute; Doctor of Economic Sciences, Ph. D, Associate Professor. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria Kazakova – Deputy Head of International Department for Fiscal Sustainability Studies of the Gaidar Institute; Head of Department for Economic Growth Studies, Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences. Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Forecast the Russian Ministry on 2019–2024, can be regarded as sufficiently discreet and realistic-2019–2020 timeframe and as the target, designed to achieve national development goals for 2021–2024. In the forecast, you can highlight a number of contentious provisions that might interfere with exit to the desired trajectory of growth of the Russian economy: the lack of mechanisms to launch private sector investment, growth in domestic production costs, possible reinforcement of coursework and inflationary risks.

Key words: scenario forecast for 2019–2024, baseline scenario, conservative scenario.

Industrial Enterprises in Q3 2017

Sergey Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences. E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The IET Industrial Confidence Indicator, an indicator calculated by the Gaidar Institute, hit a 6-month low in Q3 2018 reflecting distribution-related problems facing the Russian industry and its attempts to arrest them amid protracting stagnation and rouble devaluation.

Key words. Russian industry, demand, output, employment, stocks of finished goods, crediting of manufacturing, actual trends and expectations.