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Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Еlena V. Sinelnikova-Muryleva – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Сentral Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In late February 2022, the EU countries and the USA put in place sanctions against the Bank of Russia, which imply freezing of international reserve assets. As a result, about 50% of the reserves ($300 bn of the $630 bn available as of February 1, 2022) were affected by the sanctions.

The freezing of reserves led to the suspension of the budget rule. Accordingly, despite the reduction of exports, the price growth on key commodities led to a sharp increase in the supply of foreign currency on the Russian foreign exchange market, while demand remains limited due to the effect of restrictions on capital flows. In the medium-term period, as a new equilibrium is established in the markets, it is advisable to develop an alternative version of the budget rule, ensuring, as before, a lower correlation between oil prices and the exchange rate.

Key words: inflation, monetary police, key rate, capital outflow, Bank of Russia.

JEL-codes: E31, E52, F31.