Price Discrimination in Two-Sided Markets: the Taxi Services Example

Ekaterina A. Ponomareva – Head of Research Laboratory on Socio-Economic Regulatory Problems of the Institute for Control and Supervision, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The development of technologies directed at collection and analysis of digital platforms users data leads to expansion of algorithms for setting personalized prices for goods and services. This article shows using the example of the Taxi services sector in Moscow that the pricing used by the digital platform is statistically significant influenced not only by the marginal costs of providing services, but also by the personal characteristics of consumers, as well as a number of external factors (weather conditions, traffic conditions, etc.) that affect the willingness of users to pay for services.

That is, there is discrimination of taxi users on the part of the online platform, which can lead to losses of public welfare (can be up to 2% of taxi production in 2019 year). Based on the results and international experience, the authors have proposed a number of recommendations to mitigate the negative effects.

Key words: price discrimination, digital economy, personalized pricing, online platforms, two-sided markets.

Restrictive Trade Measures During the Coronavirus Pandemic and their Compliance with WTO Rules

Marina A. Baeva – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In order to prevent the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19), countries and integration blocks, including Russia and the EAEU, are taking restrictive trade measures. The article provides a brief overview of such measures and an analysis of how these measures comply with the WTO rules.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Key words: pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, restrictive trade measures, WTO, EAEU.

Economic Situation in the Industry in H1 2020

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexandra Ye. Batyaeva – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article presents a set of different non-traditional economic indicators obtained in the surveys, which were conducted by the «Russian Economic Barometer» among Russian industrial enterprises in the first half of 2020. A wide range of considered indicators provides a great possibility to make a more comprehensive assessment of the state of affairs in Russian industry.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, production and investments restrictive factors, suppliers, wholesale buyers, recruitments and redundancies, risk of bankruptcy, competitiveness, sources of investments, relations with banks, production and inflation, demand prognoses.

Russia’s Foreign Trade in H1 2020: Reduction in the Trade Turnover in the Wake of Pandemic

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In H1 2020, exports of fuel and energy commodities decreased by 34% because of a drop in global prices on energy resources. The non-oil and gas exports increased by 2.8% in value terms against the backdrop of decline in global prices on some commodities of this group (6.5%), however, it was made up for by twofold growth in supplies of precious stones and metals. Imports fell by 6.5% owing primarily to the contraction of Russian GDP amidst pandemic.

Key words: foreign trade, exports, imports, pandemic.

Survey of Current Business (June-September 2020)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In June 2020, the diffusion index of equipment purchases increased by 16 points, of output – by 13, of order-book level by 10, and of wages by 7 points. However, inventory indicators also grew: the corresponding diffusion index added 13 points, and their relative volume – 10, thus reaching 96% – the highest value in more than 2 years. The diffusion indices of current and expected in three months prices for purchased goods also rised.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

Bank of Russia Has Taken a Break in Monetary Policy Easing

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Bank of Russia Board of Directors meeting on 18 September 2020 maintained the key rate unchanged at 4.25 per annum thus putting on hold monetary policy easing taking place from the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. This decision was due to the effect of short-term proinflationary risks including weakening of the ruble, rapid revival of consumer demand, growth in inflationary expectations of the population and businesses. According to the bank of Russia forecast annual inflation will hit 3.7-4.2% in 2020, 3.5-4.0% in 2020 and will stay close to 4% over the forecast horizon.

Key words: inflation, basic inflation, annual inflation, prices, consumer prices, monetary policy, key interest, Bank of Russia.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators of the Russian Economy Using Dimension Reduction Models

Anton A. Skrobotov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Aleksey V. Tsarev – Younger Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

This study is devoted to the analysis of forecast power of dimension reduction models for Russian macroeconomic time series. Various approaches and methods for modeling and forecasting high-dimensional macroeconomic time series are reviewed and discussed. The approaches considered are applied to Russian data on 29 time series for the period from January 2000 to June 2019. A comparative analysis of the results indicates that in half of the cases, the random forest model is the best in terms of predictive power, and its use on average improves the quality of the constructed forecasts by 5%, 25%, and 30% for the short, medium, and long-term periods, respectively.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: forecasting, forecast evaluation, Russian macroeconomic time series, LASSO, random forest.

Structural Features of Investment Activity in the Wake of the Pandemic

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia A Lavrishcheva – Doktorand of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Fixed investments in H1 2020 amounted to 96% relative to the corresponding period of the previous year. The trends towards increased share in own funds and increased role of budget funds in financing the investment programs have gained momentum in the sources of investment funding.

Dynamics of fixed investments of major companied in January-June 2020 was determined by the positive trends observed in the manufacturing industry and in the sector of essential services—healthcare and education amid sharp drop in fixed investments in the mining sector and transport complex.

Key words: investments, fixed investments, sources of investment financing, structure of investments, investments across types of economic activity, investments in the regional context, pandemic.

Conducting a Quantitative Assessment of the Effectiveness of Expanding the Number of Participants in the “One Belt, One Way” Project

Ksenia A. Gavrilova – International Logistics Coordinator Weatherford International Ltd.; Applicant, Department of International Cooperation of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria A. Shapor – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In the modern conditions of development of the world economy, there is an urgent need for countries to implement integration projects. One of the most modern large-scale megaprojects is China’s One Belt, One Way Initiative. In the framework of this work, the authors proposed a methodology for quantifying the effectiveness of expanding this initiative and increasing the number of participants. In other words, the authors of this study in their work answer the question about the effectiveness of expanding the number of participants in this project, using quantitative indicators rather than qualitative, to achieve the stated goal.

Key words: megaproject, Chinese initiative “One belt – one way”, a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of countries’ participation in the project.

Structural Changes in the Domestic Market in H1 2020

Nadezhda P. Volovik – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Olga I. Izryadnova – Head of Structural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria V. Kazakova – Deputy Director of Science at the Center for Regional Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: kazakova @ranepa.ru

Simultaneous contraction of both supply and demand was the feature of the crisis situation this year. The economic situation was determined, firstly, by higher rates of decline in business activity in the services sector compared to the manufacture of goods, secondly, sharp drop in mining relative to manufacturing and, thirdly, contraction in net exports amid changes in market trends and demand on the global market of energy resources.

Economic recovery expected in H2 2020 is unlikely to be sufficient to offset significant financial losses incurred by business and mounting pressure on the labor market.

Key words: industrial production, consumer market, demand, supply, services, unemployment, pandemic, crisis.