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Ruble Exchange Rate Pass-through into Export Prices in 2012-2020: Industry and Geographical Specific

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Assessments of exchange rate pass-through – export price reaction to changes in the ruble exchange rate – are necessary for export projection especially for the period of high volatility of the national currency. On average, dollar prices of non-fuel exports moderately responded to changes in the ruble exchange rate in the medium term (half-year) perspective (34%) and fuel prices have practically not responded to ruble exchange rate movements. Non-fuel industries demonstrate marked flexibility in the pace and degree of price adjustment following changes in the exchange rate. With a breakdown into groups of countries, prices of non-fuel products are highly sensitive to the ruble exchange rate in shipments to CIS countries (53%), to a lesser degree – to the EU countries (41%), and least of all – in shipments to other countries (17%).

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: international trade, export prices, exchange rate, non-fuel exports, exchange rate pass-through.