Regional Economy in 2020: the Pandemic Has Created Problems in Resource-producing Regions and Large Cities

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The COVID-19 crisis has had the greatest impact on resource-producing regions and large cities boasting a developed service sector. The decline in investment was coupled by their concentration in the capital and in the leading regions of hydrocarbon production. The increase in registered unemployment was universal, and the subsequent decline in its level varied greatly by region. A large-scale increase in federal transfers helped increase regional budget revenues, but increased spending led to budget deficits in most regions and increased debt.

Key words: regions, resource extractive regions, socio-economic situation of regions, pandemic.

JEL-codes: H72, P25, Q32, R11, R51.

Trends and Factors of Development of Small and Medium-sized Businesses in Russian Regions during Сorona Crisis

Stepan P. Zemtsov – Director of Centre for Economic Geography and Regionalism of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander A. Mikhaylov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2020, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) suffered from anti-epidemic measures and falling incomes of the population. We sought to identify trends and factors that influence the dynamic of the SME sector in the regions of Russia.

A stronger decline in the number of SMEs was observed in the largest agglomerations, northern resource-rich and boundary regions, which was adversely affected by the stringiness of quarantine measures, and positively – by a relatively high level of income of the population, a favorable business climate and a large consumer market. The growth of employment in the SME sector in Russia is partly due to anti-crisis measures, the transition of a number of large companies to medium-sized status, as well as statistical effects. In agglomerations with large markets and a high level of digitalization, employment grew stronger.

It is necessary to extend the SME support programs in 2021. Particular attention should be paid to supporting the digitalization of business, improving the business climate in the regions and increase the accessibility of large markets for SMEs.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme for 2020.

Key words: small and medium-sized business, pandemic, crisis, affected by the crisis industries, investment attractiveness index.

JEL-codes: R11, R15, L26, C23.

Youth Unemployment in Russia: Scope and Issues

Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Young people survived the crisis of 2020 relatively well. The high unemployment rate involving the 15–24 year olds in Russia (15.5% in 2019 compared to 4.6% of unemployment as a whole) is explained by the calculation specifics of this indicator. The average time required to find a job among young people in Russia is significantly lower compared to other age groups, and is close to the developed countries. About half of young unemployed people in Russia are looking for a job less than three months: this indicator is significantly lower compared to the population of other age groups. The share of “discouraged” unemployed (i.e. those who failed to find a job and left the labor market) is comparable to the most prosperous European countries.

The article was prepared as part of the state research order of the RANEPA.

Key words: unemployment, youth unemployment, pandemic.

JEL-codes: J21, J63, J64.

Sustainable Finance Ratings

Yury A. Danilov – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Danil A. Pivovarov – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Igor S. Davydov – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article touches upon one of the most problematic areas of introducing the concept of sustainable finance into the practice of functioning of financial markets and institutions. The most famous international ESG ratings are briefly described. The conclusions of a number of works on the reasons for the imperfection of ESG ratings, including a significant range of ratings of the corporation from different rating agencies, are summarized. The current situation in the field of the formation of rating assessments and indices of sustainable development in Russia is described, in which the same shortcomings that are characteristic of international ratings are manifested in an exaggerated form.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research program.

Key words: sustainable finance, sustainable development, ESG ratings, sustainable development indices, Greenwashing.

JEL-codes: G10, G24, G30, Q01.

Employment in Russia in 2020: a Controversial Recovery

Andrey V. Polbin – Head of Mathematical Modeling of Economic Processes Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Deputy Head of Macroeconomic Modeling Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Nikita D. Fokin – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2020, unemployment in Russia displayed moderate growth over Q2. In Q3 and Q4, in spite of the economic recovery, its index was quite high. Employment was sustained by several factors, in particular the expectations of employers that the pandemic crisis would soon be over. In addition, available estimates indicate that the measures adopted by the government succeeded in keeping down the unemployment in Q2 2020; however, in Q3 and Q4 2020, their effect began to wane.

The article was prepared as part of the state research order of the RANEPA.

Key words: employment, unemployment, GDP, Okun’s law.

JEL-codes: C13, C22, C53.

Russian Industry in March 2021

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The increase in demand evidenced in March 2021 allows Russian industrial enterprises to hire personnel and maintain the output growth. Sales forecasts, the output and hiring plans continue to gain optimism, giving the reason to hope that the upward trend will continue in Q2 2021. However, inflationary expectations are also high in the Russian industry.

Key words: Russian industrial sector, demand, stocks of finished products, stocks of raw materials, inputs, inputs growth constraints, personnel, investment, crisis.

JEL-codes: L16, L60.

Non-formal and Informal Education: European Experience of the Recognition of Competencies

Svetlana E. Novikova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article examines the European experience of recognizing the skills and competencies acquired in the framework of non-formal and informal learning. The analysis showed that the validation procedures in many countries are not characterized by a systematic approach. The competence verification procedure can be carried out for inclusion in the formal education system, as well as integration in the labor market.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: recognition, validation, identification, certification, formal education, non-formal education, informal education, funding, stakeholders, methods.

JEL-codes: J01, J24, I21.

Survey of Current Business (January-April 2021)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In January 2021, the diffusion index of prices for manufactured products added 20 percentage points and reached 69%, and the similar index for purchased products added 10 points, rising to 90%. For both indicators, these are the maximum values for the last 6 years. Due to the long New Year holidays, many indicators of January are traditionally significantly lower than of December. For example, we can mention the diffusion indices of output (-35 points), order-book level (-13) and equipment purchases (-12), but their values were better than the January indicators of 2019–2020. Growing for the second month in a row, the diffusion index of three-month expectations for equipment purchases reached 51% for the first time since we started to collect data for it in 1993.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Young People Favor Higher Education

Elena A. Semionova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The results of a sociological study conducted by the Center of Economy of Continuing Education (CENO), RANEPA, confirm the trend, whereby an increasing share of young people wish to get higher education. This is due to better follow-up opportunities for finding high-paying jobs. Specialties related to medicine, engineering, information technology and economics are considered the most promising for professional education.

Key words: youth, higher education, sociological study.

JEL-codes: I21.

Industrial Production Dynamics in January-February 2021

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Acting Head of Center for Real Sector, Head of Department of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The OPEC+ deal and the coronavirus pandemic remain key factors affecting the state of the manufacturing and extractive industries. Some easing of the terms of the OPEC+ deal in 2021 in case of Russia and the possibility of containing the pandemic through mass vaccination suggest that there is a potential for growth in the short term. Nevertheless, according to the results of the first two months of 2021, manufacturing industry as a whole continues to show near-zero growth rates.

Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, OPEC+ deal, coronavirus pandemic.

JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.

Housing Construction-2020: Nationalization or Turning the Wheel of the Market Cycle?

Georgy N. Malginov – Head of Ownership and Corporate Governance Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: malginov@ieр.ru

Sergey G. Sternik – Professor of Department for Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance of the Financial University under the Russian Government; Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article examines the main economic and institutional trends in the Russian real estate market in 2020, and the impact of the state’s anti-crisis policy on it.

Key words: housing construction, housing, escrow accounts, pandemic.

JEL-codes: H12, L74, O18, R21, R31.

Global Economic Outlook Improved after Falling

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexey S. Evseev – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Farida Ya. Iskhakova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic triggered the largest drop in global output since World War II. However, it turned out to be less than expected at the beginning of the pandemic. International organizations are improving global economic outlook as the vaccination of the population accelerates and new incentive measures are adopted. However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the rate of recovery.

Key words: world economy, projections for development of world economy, vaccination, pandemic.

JEL-codes: E20, F01, 010.