Regions over the Period of January-September 2021: The Two Largest Agglomerations Are Emerging Faster from the Pandemic Recession

Natalia V. Zubarevich – Main Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Geographic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The regions are emerging from the pandemic crisis quite rapidly but unevenly across territories. In terms of their socioeconomic indicators, Moscow and St. Petersburg are in the lead. The rapid revenue growth across regional budgets was accompanied by a reduction in interbudgetary transfers in about half of them. The expenditure policies implemented in regional budgets were likewise different. Moscow pursued a countercyclical policy by means of increasing its spending on the economy at a faster pace. In the budgets of the other regions, social expenditures prevailed.

Key words: regions, socio-economic situation of regions, regional divide.

JEL-codes: H72, P25, Q32, R11, R51.

GDP Nowcasting: Dynamic Factor Model vs. Official Forecasts

Andrey V. Zubarev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Konstantin S. Rybak – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

We propose a dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP, which becomes available with a significant delay in official statistics. Furthermore, we show that obtained nowcasts outperform those made by the Ministry of Economic Development.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Key words: GDP nowcasting, factor model, official forecasts.

JEL-codes: C53, C82, C38, E27.

Educational Migration: Driving Factor

Tatyana L. Klyachko – Director of Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena A. Semionova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Young people are the most mobile population group, while vocational education is one of the key reasons for migration for this age cohort. The lack of educational institutions in the chosen profession or specialty in the place of residence where young people graduate from school is the driving factor for educational migration. Most of young people, i.e. educational migrants, receiving vocational education, have no further plans to return to the place where they graduated from school.

Key words: migration, educational migration, higher educational institutions, secondary vocational education.

JEL: O15.

Whether Wages Should Accord with Labour Productivity: Spatial Perspective

Kirill V. Rostislav – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The discrepancy between the wage index and the labor productivity index is often seen as a threat to the economic growth sustainability. Critics of linking the two indices emphasize that different deflators are used for them. The article clarifies and complements this criticism by pointing out three circumstances: differences in the share of non-market output, the volume index of which is obtained by extrapolating the number of employed; mismatch of production and consumption sites; unsatisfactory labor productivity as a measure of the contribution of labor costs to production.

Key words: labour productivity, wages, non-market output, CPI, regional differences, labour quality, capital measurement.

JEL-codes: C43, E24, E25, E31, J31.

Behavior of Private Investors in the Stock Markets of Russia and the US

Alexander E. Abramov – Head of Department for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey G. Kosyrev – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of the Scientific Council, Director of Center for Ownership and Corporate Governance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Institute of Economics, Mathematics and Information Technology, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria I. Chernova – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Over the past two years, millions of new private investors have entered the stock markets in Russia and the USA, but their number in the Russian Federation is significantly overestimated. In both markets, private investors face the risks of getting involved in speculative transactions. The Russian market demonstrates unfavorable economic and legal conditions for long-term savings in risky assets, which results in the prevalence of deposits and cash in the financial assets owned by households.

Key words: stock market, stock markets of Russia and the USA, private investors.

JEL-codes: G11, G14, G15, G17, G41.

Impact of Solar and Wind Energy in the EU Countries on the Long-Term Prospects of Russian Hydrocarbon Exports

Vladimir Yu. Potashnikov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander A. Golub – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dmitry A. Shorin – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Solarand wind are forcing out coal and gas-fired power in the EU. Electric cars will edge out gasoline powered cars. Based on the highly detailed model of the representative energy system of the EU carbon-free electric power industry (365 days for 24 hours, 200 supply regions and 8 demand regions) presented in the article, it has been concluded that the share of renewable energy sources (RES) is likely to continue to grow, despite the difficulties of balancing energy sources with intermittent operation. And carbon regulation can only accelerate this process.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.

Key words: energy transition, representative power model, 100% electricity generation, renewable energy sources (RES).

JEL-codes: Q47, Q42, Q41.

Financial Performance of the Banking Sector for the Three Quarters of 2021

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The profit of the banking sector for the three quarters of 2021 hit a record Rb 1.87 trillion. The rapid growth of lending to the population, reduction in the cost of reserve creation due to the low share of outstanding loans, the stock market growth and the development of intermediary operations that bring fee-based income have affected the high profit indicator.

Key words: Russian banking sector, banks’ financial results, banks’ profit, banks’ profitability.

JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.

Russian Development Assistance during the Coronavirus Pandemic in 2020

Yury K. Zaitsev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russia’s status as an international donor was confirmed by the Government of the Russian Federation in the crisis year 2020. A large share of Russian aid (more than 44%) in 2020 was associated with writing-off of debts. Russia has also contributed to the provision of international humanitarian assistance, helping to combat the spread of coronavirus infection.

The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA in 2021.

Key words: development assistance, official development assistance (ODA), international development assistance, pandemic, coronavirus.

JEL-codes: F63, O19, Q01.

Survey of Current Business (September-December 2021)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In September 2021, the indicator of orders looked very optimistic: relative to the normal level for this month taken as 100%, it gained 97%, which turned out to be a record high value in the entire history of observations. The level of labor utilization rate was very high – 95%. The diffusion index of employment showed the second highest value in 30 years of measurements – 56%. Among production restrictive factors, high prices for raw materials, materials and semi-finished products reached the first place for the first time since 1992 (53%). The shortage of labor (34%) and skillful workers (32%) also rose significantly in the ranking.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Federal Budget Execution for Three Quarters of 2021

Sergey G. Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Tischenko – Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Revenue receipts to the federal budget are above planned volumes both for the oil and gas and the non-oil and gas components. According to results for three quarters of 2021, federal budget revenues amounted to Rb 17.9 trillion, which is equivalent of 95.5% of the projected annual volume and 35.6% higher than revenues for the same period last year. Federal budget expenditures for the three quarters of 2021 increased by Rb 1.4 trillion compared to the same period in 2020 with cash execution of 76.6% of the annual approved volumes.

Key words: federal budget, revenue, oil and gas revenues, non-oil and gas revenues, expenditure, taxes.

JEL-codes: H11, H50, H62, H63.