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Consumption of Goods and Services in 2020: the Pandemic Model

Aleksandra Ya. Burdyak – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2020 the real monetary income of the population decreased by 3.0% while the real disposable monetary income decreased by 3.5%. As a result of the pandemic, the consumption pattern of Russians has changed: in public expenses the share of services has fallen almost to the level of 2016, while the share of food has increased markedly. Despite the retail trade turnover decline, sales of basic food products through large and medium-sized retail enterprises increased. The return to the previous consumption model would be possible after all the pandemic restrictions are removed.

The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Key words: consumption, pandemic, retail sales, household expenditure on food, spending on paid services.

Survey of Current Business (November 2020 - February 2021)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Stanislav V. Belyakov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

November 2020 was significantly better than October in a number of indicators: the diffusion indices of employment, output, order-book level and equipment purchases added 7–8 points each. At the same time, the relative level of stocks increased by 9 points, which returned it from the abnormally low values of the previous two months. Nearly 80% of enterprises participating in the survey expect an increase in prices for purchased products in three months. The corresponding diffusion index also rose to a rather high level of 88 for the first time in 2 years.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

Family Resources and Youth Educational Trajectory Choices

Tatyana L. Klyachko – Director of Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dmitry M. Loginov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Elena V. Lomteva – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Larisa Yu. BedarevaSenior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

As shown by the study conducted in 2020 by the RANEPA Center for Lifelong Learning Economics, the main reasons behind the respondents’ choice in favor of secondary vocational education (SVE) can be divided into four groups: lack of proper knowledge and/or motivation to learn; shortage of family resources; a strategy of maximizing the advantages in the labor market; a strategy of choosing training in the SVE system as a step towards higher education.

Key words: youth, education, secondary vocational education, family resources.

Russian Industrial Sector in December 2020

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Continued demand growth amid increasing shortage of finished goods inventories allowed Russian industry to maintain the output growth at the end of the year. Rather stable and planned recruiting of personnel coupled with a downward trend in investment pessimism allow to discuss the future industrial indexes with cautious optimism.

Key words: Russian industrial sector, demand, stocks of finished products, stocks of raw materials, inputs, personnel, investment, crisis.

Results of the Moscow Transport Complex Development in 2010-2020

Igor A. Soldatenko – Senior State Inspector of the Moscow Chamber of Control; Postgraduate student, Institute of Economics and Finance, Russian University of Transport (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The development of the Moscow transport complex is of strategic importance for the economic growth of the region and Russia as a whole. State program financing of the capital’s transport makes up one fifth of the Moscow budget, which determines high requirements for the results of using public resources, but often changes in the program document negatively affect the analysis of the evolution of the transport complex.

The main results of the functioning of transport are reflected in 10 indicators of the Moscow Transport Strategy, for each of which a significant improvement was stated over the past decade. The multi-vector development of various types of transport and transport infrastructure led to the strengthening of Moscow’s rating compared to nine other leading megacities of the world – from seventh position in 2010 to second in 2018.

Key words: transport, metro, taxi, car sharing, state program, target indicator, financing of transport development.

Industrial Production Dynamics in Q4 2020

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Acting Head of Center for Real Sector, Head of Department of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Based on the Q4 2020 results, industrial production outturns increased mainly on the back of extractive industries, particularly, owing to export coal supplies to China and Europe. In manufacturing, output growth still prevails in food, textile and chemical industries.

Key words: industry, industrial sectors, extractive industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, coronavirus.

Mortgage Credit in 2020

Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Final transition to escrow accounts model in financing residential construction was the highlight of the mortgage market in 2020. That model provided state guarantee for the citizens investing in housing at the construction stage.

Reduction of credit rates and implementation of the state program on interest rate subsidization for newly constructed building mortgage loans have resulted in upward demand on the real estate market. Over 2020, the Russian banks have built up the value of mortgage loans exceeding record indexes previously recorded in 2018.

Key words: housing mortgage lending, soft mortgage programs, escrow accounts.

Russian Economic Assistance to Central Asian Countries: Results in a Span of Twenty Years’ Partnership

Yury K. Zaitsev – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article reviews projects aimed at economic assistance to Central Asian countries implemented by Russia in a span of twenty years. The review encompasses key partnership areas: education, digitalization, ramp up of national potential, and food security. That said, both bilateral and multilateral Russian projects undergo review. Availability of information was the key in projects selection and cannot fully reflect the RF efforts in the region. The analysis demonstrated that Russia continues widely using the multilateral mechanisms for the provision of its assistance.

The article was prepared within the implementation of the state research order by RANEPA.

Key words: official development assistance, Central Asia, World bank, Russian Federation.

Current Outcome of Food Prices Regulation

Denis S. Ternovskiy – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Direct regulation of prices on vegetable oil, sugar and bread has helped to stop their growth, however it has not resulted in stopping food inflation as a whole. Restrictive measures on wheat exports have led to world prices growth but when put into effect they can reduce prices for the consumers on the domestic market.

Offered mechanism for revenue shortfall compensation for the agricultural producers will reimburse direct losses from the introduction of duties but not losses incurred from price reduction on the domestic market.

Key words: food products, price regulation of food products, global food prices, export duties.

Federal Budget Execution in 2020

Sergey G. Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Tischenko – Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

According to preliminary data released by the Finance Ministry of Russia, the federal budget revenues constituted Rb18.7 trillion against the projected Rb 20.6 trillion for 2020, and expenditure – Rb22.8 trillion against planned Rb19.7 trillion. Such difference in the state budget execution was due to the pandemic and the need to put in place the relief programs for business and the population. Total amount of funds for that purpose stood at Rb 5 trillion.

Key words: federal budget, revenue, oil and gas revenues, non-oil and gas revenues, expenditure, taxes.

To the Issue of Food Relief Program

Natalia I. Shagaida – Director of Center for Agro-Food Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Agricultural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article provides methodology for revealing vulnerable groups of population with due regard for Russian Food Security Doctrine with respect to the accessibility to food products. It also exhibits methodology for calculation of relief sums and its impact on the food market. The article also gives a short review of international experience that can be fruitful for the development of mechanism for the implementation of food assistance programs in Russia.

Key words: food security, monitoring of food security, food relief.

Balance of Payments: Results of 2020

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute for International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2020, Russia’s export balance of trade plunged against 2019 on the back of decrease in exports value amid slight decline in imports. Current account balance remained positive in spite of a blend of most adverse factors. In 2020, net outflow of private capital doubled compared to 2019. Decrease of banks and other sectors foreign liabilities in the wake of geopolitical risks, falling interest of investors to emerging markets’ assets and growth in global uncertainty have played the key role. This led to ruble to dollar exchange rate to drop by 19.3% in 2020 hitting Rb73.9 to 1 USD.

Key words: balance of payments, export, import, current account transaction, ruble exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, Bank of Russia.